摘要:房地产行业的发展促进了我国民经济的快速发展，但房地产开发本身具有投资大，风险大，回收期长等特点。尤其是国家对房地产市场的宏观调控一直很严厉，局部房地产出现泡沫危机。开发商面临前所未有的压力，不仅如此，投资房地产的风险也随之加大。房地产开发项目进行的可行性研究，为投资决策提供依据从而确保项目的安全和可行性，因而其意义显得尤为重要。

　　　本文以上海市南华苑小区项目为例，通过在宏观上阐述该项目的市场背景、项目区域市场状况、项目本身优劣势；在微观上阐述该项目的盈利能力、偿债能力以及该项目的不确定性因素，判别动态投资回收期、净现值、内部收益率、敏感性等指标的可行性，得出该项目的可行性，为开发商的投资开发提供依据。

关键词 房地产开发；可行性研究；盈亏平衡分析；风险分析

Abstract：The development of the real estate industry has promoted the rapid growth of our national economy, though the industry itself needs large high risk investment and usually has a long payback period. Especially when the national macro-control of the real estate market becomes very strict, local real estate crisis has been bubbling. Developers are facing unprecedented pressure because of the increasing risks of their investment. Therefore, it becomes very important for investors to carry out feasibility study of real estate development projects and provide basis to ensure the safety and feasibility of the decision.

　　　To provide investors better suggestions, this paper takes the project of Shanghai Nanhua Estate as an example to judge the feasibility of dynamic investment payback period, net present value, internal rate of return, and sensitivity index through the analysis of market background, market conditions, the advantages and disadvantages from macroscopic aspects and the solvency of the profitability ,uncertainty factors from microscopic aspects.

Keywords  real estate development  feasibility study  break-even analysis  risk analysis

　　　房地产作为国民经济的基本生产要素之一，作为衣、食、住、行中最大宗、根本的消费品，其具有固定性、多样性、稀缺性等特点，与此同时房地产又具有基础性、先导性和风险性等特点。房地产行业作为我国国民经济的支柱行业，只有做到了平稳、健康、协调的发展，才能真正意义上对国民经济发挥促进作用。

　　　可行性研究报告是项目立项阶段的核心文件，也是编制设计任务书的依据，需要很大的工作量及信息量。能否做好开发项目可行性研究，是项目成败的先决条件之一。对房地产项目进行科学系统的分析和预测，制定出一套完备的、具有可操作性的评价指标，为房地产项目的建设开发及资金计划做出完善的预测和安排，为房地产企业的资本运作和投资决策提供科学的理论依据，避免决策的盲目性，从而达到促进房地产业持续稳定健康发展的目的。