摘  要：本文统计分析了浙江省宁海县生活垃圾产生量（2005年—2010年），根据数据统计归纳出影响垃圾产生量的7项因素,采用多元线性回归分析的方法建立了垃圾产量预测模型,分析的结果表明非农业人口、国内生产总值和农业人口与城市生活垃圾产生量存在一定的线性关系，其中人口对城市生活垃圾产生量的影响最大。采用该模型对宁海县2011年-2020年垃圾产量进行预测，结果表明未来十年内宁海县生活垃圾产量将继续缓慢增长, 预计到2020年垃圾产量将达到45.39万吨，人均日产量为1.32千克。

关键词：生活垃圾； 多元线性回归分析； 预测

Abstract: The article analyse the Solid Waste Output of Ninghai County in Zhejian province. It summarizes seven factors that affect the amount of waste according to the statistics and it establishes the model of waste output prediction. According to the results of analysis ,there is a certain degree of linear relationship among the non-agricultural, GDP and the agricultural population, as well as the amount of domestic waste output. Population has the most influences on urban domestic waste output. Using this model to predict the output of Ninghai County during 2011 and 2020,we find that the waste output of Ninghai County will continue slowly the future decades ,the domestic waste output is expected to reach 453,900 tons , and the Daily output per capita wil reach 1.32 kilograms.

Key words：municipal solid waste    multiple linear regression analysis    prediction