Abstract：Since 2003, the phenomenon of Shanzhai has frequently appeared in the internet and our lives. Being a new kind of culture, its essence lies in imitation and copy, the core is the simulation from the original. At the same time, there have been many arguments about its prospect among which, the pessimist and the optimist have been two cardinal points.

This dissertation begins by the prospect of Shanzhai subculture, and mainly uses the research method of data studies. With the theoretical framework of Marxism philosophy and Scientific Outlook on development, it points out that by breaking through the conventional model of “copy” and “paste” and with the properly guidance and positive cultivation, it can become the main players in the market competition.

The analysis shows that we should treat the Shanzhai subculture rationally, and find a proper way to conduct and supervise its development. Moreover, we should find a balance between the copy and the innovation, and keep it grow healthily, finally let it become the benefit part of mass culture and service for people.

With profound research into two trends of Shanzhai subculture, we can find that Shanzhai subculture will has an extensive prospect if we can do the following: strengthen protection of intellectual property rights; expand the financing of technical cooperation; complete the relevant laws and regulations and outline the element of innovation, let it advance side by side with the mainstream culture.

Key words: Shanzhai; subculture; development; innovation

中文摘要：03年始，“山寨”现象频频出现在网络及我们的生活中，从经济行为逐渐演变为一种社会亚文化现象。作为一种新型文化范式，其精髓在于模仿、复制，核心是对原本的模拟。于此同时，关于山寨文化的前景，亦有诸多争论。其“悲观论”与“希望论”形成了两大主要方向。

本选题从“山寨文化”前景入手，主要采用文献研究法，以马克思主义与科学发展观为理论框架，旨在指出山寨文化需突破传统的“复制”与“创新”的样式，并加以正确引导和积极培养，必能成为市场竞争的主体。

通过分析发现，我们要理性客观的对待山寨．并寻找适当的方式去正确引导和监管其发展，在复制与创新之间把握好度的平衡，让这种新兴文化能够得以健康良性的成长，最终成为大众文化的有益部分，为社会公众服务。

从山寨文化向主流文化靠拢与向娱乐文化渐进这两种趋势再次深入探讨，如果我们能做到以下几点：加大维护知识产权的力度；加大技术投资；明确其法律底线；肯定其勇于创新的精神，相信其能拥有广阔无边的前景。

关键词：山寨；亚文化；发展；创新